Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 20.019581 21.792331 23.753810 26.106001 28.878844 32.081200 3.611660e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.208238 19.495703 22.212832 25.750715 30.352909 36.322849 4.500774e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.329087 17.869677 21.048825 25.461525 31.690908 40.664205 5.574554e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.978956 16.653797 20.139223 25.234867 32.951780 45.198369 6.908055e+01
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.967342 15.720599 19.428804 25.093812 34.225388 50.115452 8.641075e+01
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.042842 14.789135 18.580606 24.572340 34.726321 53.839415 1.045997e+02
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.686198 14.586685 18.719883 25.549831 37.949184 64.152863 1.541438e+02
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.079278 13.968806 18.168695 25.310655 38.887571 70.066149 2.033971e+02
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.623786 13.527403 17.831421 25.366070 40.397425 78.266401 2.956064e+02
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.257061 13.184344 17.606436 25.572609 42.266996 88.808027 4.936985e+02
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.899566 12.826967 17.321379 25.622251 43.806659 99.712640 9.648476e+02
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.521397 12.412447 16.906571 25.370092 44.582981 108.816305 2.353516e+03
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.214969 12.095516 16.636656 25.381894 46.085792 123.025127 4.816809e+06
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.890137 11.731731 16.261201 25.140770 46.898800 135.639852 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.593692 11.396457 15.909872 24.906790 47.691976 149.927945 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.326801 11.094010 15.593606 24.708013 48.552752 166.887391 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.091488 10.830042 15.326038 24.580726 49.612638 188.502543 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.817901 10.491885 14.906642 24.080844 49.397976 200.328777 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.769815 10.516317 15.133055 25.027087 54.225300 282.587642 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.563271 10.270661 14.853804 24.796911 54.961071 323.454245 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.406963 10.101308 14.704072 24.850828 56.789376 402.079063 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.278211 9.972002 14.620043 25.050509 59.296163 540.583452 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.138265 9.817836 14.479770 25.098536 61.252710 730.166624 NaN